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Greens claim about typhoon is not only sick but inaccurate

November 13, 2013 By Robin Grieve

This is what the IPCC 5th Assessment Report released on September 27th this year says about tropical cyclones (a typhoon is a mature tropical cyclone that occurs in certain latitudes.)

These are direct quotes

Section 14.6.1

Current datasets indicate no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century

Chapter 11 p4

There is low confidence in basin-scale projections of changes in intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones (TCs) in all basins to the mid-21st century.

Chapter 11 p33 States that modes of climate variability that in the past have led to variations in the intensity, frequency and structure of tropical cyclones across the globe—such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (e.g., (Zhang and Delworth, 2006; Wang et al., 2007; Callaghan and Power, 2011); Chapter 14)—are very likely to continue influencing TC activity through the mid-21st century. Therefore, it is very likely that over the next few decades tropical cyclone frequency, intensity and spatial distribution globally, and in individual basins, will vary from year-to-year and decade-to-decade.

Chapter 2 p 60

In summary, this assessment does not revise the SREX conclusion of low confidence that any reported long-term (centennial) increases in tropical cyclone activity are robust, after accounting for past changes in Final Draft (7 June 2013) Chapter 2 IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute 2-61 Total pages: 163 observing capabilities. More recent assessments indicate that it is

unlikely that annual numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes counts have increased over the past 100 years in the North Atlantic basin.

Ch10 p6

There is low confidence in attribution of changes in tropical cyclone activity to human influence

Ch 10 p50

Overall global average cyclone activity is expected to change little under moderate greenhouse gas forcing

Chapter 14 p30

It is likely that the global frequency of tropical cyclones will either decrease or remain essentially unchanged…….The annual frequency of tropical cyclones is generally projected to decrease or remain essentially unchanged in the next century in most regions.

This is what the Report says about extreme weather events,

Ch 10 p54

At present the evidence does not support the claim that we are observing weather events that would, individually, have been extremely unlikely in the absence of human-induced climate change.

Chapter 2 p57

There continues to be a lack of evidence and thus low confidence regarding the sign of trend in the magnitude and/or frequency of floods on a global scale.

 On the subject of extra-tropical storms (large storms in high latitudes)

Section 14.6.3

There is high confidence that the global number of extra-tropical cyclones is unlikely to decrease by more than a few percent due to anthropogenic change.

Chapter 2 P62

Confidence in large scale changes in the intensity of extreme extratropical cyclones since 1900 is low. There is also low confidence for a clear trend in storminess proxies over the last century due to inconsistencies between studies or lack of long-term data in some parts of the world (particularly in the SH). Likewise, confidence in trends in extreme winds is low, due to quality and consistency issues with analysed data.

 

Not only are the Greens and Russell Norman insensitive &  they are completely wrong.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: climate change, extreme weather, Russell Norman typhoon Haiyan

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